Wrong year for Life At Ten to be so good

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/19/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - When the two leading thoroughbreds in training are also the top female racehorses in the country, it becomes difficult for any other filly or mare to get recognized.

This is the situation that confronts five-year-old mare Life At Ten. Almost any other year the Todd Pletcher-trained horse would be mentioned as a serious contender for the Eclipse Award as champion older female and even Horse of the Year.

This year, as most people know, has been graced with the continued racing of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Zenyatta. Their respective connections have aided thoroughbred racing by keeping the two ladies in training.

However, the two champion females take away the spotlight from the other top thoroughbreds this year.

Life At Ten, owned by Candy DeBartolo, easily captured this past Saturday's running of the $750,000 Delaware Handicap. As the odds-on favorite, she set a slow pace on Delaware Park's main track in the 1 1/4-mile race and was able to open up down the stretch to defeat her five rivals by three-lengths.

"She was fortunate to get an easy first quarter and half," noted Pletcher, "and she really had a lot left in the stretch. We will probably look at the Personal Ensign (August 29) at Saratoga next and go from there. It is just special to win the Delaware Handicap because it is such an important race for fillies and mares. We have always looked at the Del 'Cap as a great opportunity. It has a great tradition and great purse and we have been fortunate enough to win the race four times."

Life At Ten is undefeated in four starts this year, including wins in the Ogden Phipps and Sixty Sails Handicaps. The five-year-old has had five different jockeys in her last six starts, something neither Rachel nor Zenyatta need to concern themselves about.

The question is whether Life At Ten will face either of the top two females in a race this year. Rachel, who is based at Saratoga, will start in this Saturday's $400,000 Lady's Secret at Monmouth Park at 1 1/8-miles.

The Personal Ensign would have set up perfectly for the defending Horse of the Year. However, majority owner Jess Jackson is an unconventional personality who doesn't follow the 'rule book' when it comes to selecting races for his four- year-old filly.

Zenyatta is most likely to make her next start at Del Mar on August 7 in the $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at 1 1/16-miles, a race she has won the last two years.

Don't expect Zenyatta to venture outside of California until the Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs in November.

Life At Ten has started at four different tracks in her last four races, a trend that allows more race fans the opportunity to view this highly talented mare.

Now within $11,000 of becoming a millionaire, Life At Ten is not to be overlooked the remainder of the 2010 racing season. If you get the chance to see her run, don't pass up the opportunity.

Wwbetcom Horseracing Betting News

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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