This Week in Auto Racing August 22 - August 26

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR's traditional late summer Saturday night shootout at the Bristol Motor Speedway highlights a busy week at the race track.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Sharpie 500 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

It took three days, but for Kurt Busch the race at Michigan was worth the wait. The 2004 Nextel Cup champion solidified his hold on the 12th and final spot in the "Chase for the Nextel Cup."

"This was an unbelievable performance for my Pat Tryson-led Miller Lite Dodge team and they deserve the credit," said Busch. "You know, I've got to thank the fans who stuck it out on a Tuesday to see a green-white-checker. We put it on for them here at the end, all the restarts, all of the guys on different strategy, it really was a tough, hard-fought win."

Busch has built his lead from 96 points before the race to 163 points over Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 171 over his Penske Racing teammate Ryan Newman. His second win in the last three races also means that should he make the "Chase" he would start with the fourth-highest total. Only Jeff Gordon (four wins), Jimmie Johnson (four) and Tony Stewart (three) would begin the 10-race "playoffs" with more points.

And even better news for Busch is that this week's event is at the Bristol Motor Speedway, a track where the Las Vegas native has had great success. In 13 career starts at BMS, Busch has one pole, five wins and eight top-10s. Between the spring of 2002 and the spring of 2004 he won four of five races and has led a total of 560 laps.

That's not quite as many as Gordon (active leader with 2,435) or Stewart (1,085), but it's better than Greg Biffle, Bill Elliott, Kevin Harvick or Newman.

Owner Roger Penske is also impressed with how Busch has rebounded from some early career problems. Although he still has to learn to control himself sometimes (ex: At Dover in June following a crash with Stewart, Busch drove into Stewart's car on pit road, nearly hitting a member of Stewart's team drawing a 100-point penalty and a $100,000 fine) he has become more of a team leader.

"I think Kurt appreciates what we're putting behind him," said Penske. "He certainly has demonstrated in the last (few) races how good he really is. I think he's at the top of his game. We hung with him when he was down, facedown quite honestly... The team has stood behind him and certainly you can see what has turned out to be a terrific team and some great success to date."

Busch will likely have to fight with Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Harvick for another win this week and the all-important 10 playoff points that a win is worth.

Gordon, like Busch, owns five Bristol wins. He also has finished in the top-10 an amazing 18 times in 29 starts. Kenseth has earned two wins and nine top-10s in 15 career starts around the 0.533-mile oval. Harvick has one win and nine top-10s in 13 starts and an average finish of 10.1, best among the drivers currently in the "Chase."

As always when you try and shoehorn 43 cars onto the high-banked, half-mile oval at Bristol expect to see plenty of bent sheetmetal and frustrated drivers. It makes for great racing.

Busch

Food City 250 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

The Busch Series continues to trudge through the long season with Carl Edwards dominating from beginning to end. At least in the driver category.

In the owner's championship, the race is much, much closer. While Edwards leads Kevin Harvick in the driver standings by 700 points, the battle between the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford and the No.29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet is a different story.

After last week, the combination of Jeff Burton and Scott Wimmer driving the No.29 Chevy is actually ahead of Edwards' No.60. The No.29 team was more than 300 points behind the No.60 following the second race at Nashville Superspeedway in June, but has made up all the ground and now leads by 40 points.

The No.29 took the lead last week after Edwards was spun out by Reed Sorenson and wound up 28th. Meanwhile, Burton finished fourth. The strong run was Burton's ninth top-five and 12th top-10 finish in just 13 starts this season.

"Scott (Wimmer) has done a great job for us," said Burton. "It's still a long way to go but we're having a lot of fun with it. With all of the pressure on the No.60, and having such a big lead in the driver point standings, nobody expected us to be in it. We're just having fun and Richard (Childress) wants us to win the owners championship in the worst way and we want to win it in the worst way."

Obviously, with the drivers championship pretty much already decided, it will be the only race worth watching.

Craftsman

O'Reilly 200 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

"Race leader Mike Skinner" is a phrase used quite often this season. The driver of the No.5 Toyota truck has led at least one lap in the last 19 races dating back to the Atlanta Motor Speedway in October 2006.

Skinner led 102 laps in the last Craftsman Truck Series race at the Nashville Superspeedway pushing him over the 1,000-miles led mark in 2007. It is the fifth time in the series the feat has been accomplished and the second time for Skinner, who did it in 1996. Skinner finished third in 1996 and is determined to finish a couple of positions higher this season.

Skinner has led the most laps in seven races this year while leading the series in points (2,521), winnings ($526,850), wins (4), poles (8), top-fives (12) and top-10s (14). He also leads Ron Hornaday Jr. by 82 points.

Wednesday's race will present a different challenge than usual at the 0.533- mile, high-banked, Bristol Motor Speedway short track. In addition to the traditional problems that BMS entails there is the added feature of a newly paved race track.

Teams tested there in July, but it will still be the first NASCAR race on the track since it was repaved.

"They did a nice job, the track looks different, but it's really the same Bristol - and that's a good thing," said Ted Musgrave's crew chief Rick Gay Jr.

In the test, Travis Kvapil was quickest at 119.626 m.p.h., while Musgrave was second fastest.

"The team did a great job working through our test plan," Kvapil said. "They hit on some things towards the end of the day that found us some more speed."

Kvapil (-236) sits third in the championship after winning the last race at Nashville.

"It was pretty awesome," said Kvapil in the post-race press conference. "It took our K&N Ford half the race to get the track position and the right adjustment in it. This is the truck we won with in Michigan and finished second in Kentucky with."

It was Kvapil's ninth consecutive top-10 and third win of the season. If Skinner and Hornaday Jr. weren't having such great seasons, Kvapil would be right in the middle of the battle, instead of just outside of it, looking in.

The good news, however, is there are still 10 races left and if Kvapil can keep up his current pace he can challenge Skinner and Hornaday Jr. for the championship.

INDYCARS

Motorola Indy 300 - Infineon Raceway - Sonoma, CA

Two races ago, Tony Kanaan was virtually a bystander in the championship race. He was 111 points behind teammate Dario Franchitti and 77 points behind Scott Dixon.

Worse, neither Franchitti nor Dixon had made a misstep all season and it looked as if the gap was too large to bridge.

The series traveled to the Michigan International Speedway and Kanaan collected his first win of the season. Better still, Dixon faltered with handling problems finishing 10th and Franchitti finished 13th after a frightening upside-down ride.

Two weeks ago Kanaan won his second consecutive race, at the Kentucky Speedway, while points leader Franchitti again struggled.

The series arrives this week at the road course in Sonoma, CA and Kanaan is just 52 points behind Franchitti and 44 out of second place. With just three races remaining on the schedules (Infineon, Belle Isle, Chicagoland) it is a three-horse race for the title.

But Kanaan will have to improve on last year when he ran 11th. Then 19-year- old Marco Andretti won the race edging Franchitti for the first win of his career. For Andretti it was all about fuel strategy and fuel conservation.

"My guys are the best in the business," said the son of Michael Andretti and grandson of Mario Andretti. "Their strategy was brilliant."

Kanaan will also have to best Dixon who has been superior over the last three years on road courses.

Dixon has won four times and collected nine top-10s in his last nine road course starts. In 2007 he has two wins (Mid-Ohio, Watkins Glen) and a second place on the streets of St. Petersburg.

It's a tall order, but if Kanaan wants to add a second crown to his trophy case, he will have to beat Dixon at his own game. So far Kanaan has finished third, fourth and fourth in three road course starts. Nice stats, but not enough.

Franchitti has finished fifth, third and second in three road course starts. Again, pretty good statistics, but given the likelihood of a Dixon win Franchitti could be looking up at the points leader by the end of the weekend.

One thing is for sure, it's a race you shouldn't miss.

CHAMP CARS

Champ Car Grand Prix of Belgium - Circuit Zolder - Zolder, Belgium

The Champ Car Series heads off on the European and Asian portion of the schedule, not returning to North America until mid-November. The series will begin with races in Belgium this weekend and Holland next Sunday. Then its off to Surfer's Paradise and China before finishing the season with an event in Mexico City and one in Phoenix.

Three-time series champion Sebastien Bourdais will bring a 37-point lead to the track at Zolder, Belgium - his largest of the season after a win at Road America. It was his second win in the last three events and coupled with a bad race by Robert Doornbos has allowed him to put some distance between himself and his primary rival for the championship.

The 2.622-mile road course will host a Champ Car event for the first time.

"Obviously it would be awesome to go back to Europe with the McDonald's team and get another couple of wins, but those tracks are a big unknown for us," said Bourdais. "I have never been to Zolder or Assen."

That hasn't seemed to bother the Frenchman in the past. Over the last four years, Champ Cars has used seven new venues and Bourdais won five times.

Doornbos has gone in the opposite direction at just the wrong time. After posting five consecutive top-10s, including a win at Mont-Tremblant, the Rotterdam, Netherlands native has finished outside the top-10 in two of the last three events. But he is excited to be headed back home.

"For Champ Car, it's their first time at Zolder, but not for me - I raced there seven years ago, in 2000," said Doornbos. "It's just great to drive in front of your home crowd, and for sure it gives you an extra boost that you need."

FORMULA ONE

Turkish Grand Prix - Istanbul Autodrom - Istanbul, Turkey

After a wild weekend in Hungary, where McLaren finished first and fourth but gained no manufacturer points because of a qualifying penalty, the series resumes this Sunday with a race in Istanbul, Turkey.

Despite the 15-point penalty, McLaren still has control of both the drivers and manufacturers championship. Behind super rookie Lewis Hamilton and two- time defending World Champion Fernando Alonso the team holds a 19-point edge for the manufacturers trophy. They also have a stranglehold on the drivers championship.

Hamilton, who has only once finished worse than third one time in 11 Formula One starts, owns a seven-point lead in the standings over teammate Alonso. His lead is 20 points over rival Ferrari's No.1 driver Kimi Raikkonen and 21 points over Felipe Massa, also of Ferrari.

Istanbul is a popular circuit for the drivers. It's fast with long straights. It has several different corner combinations including elevation changes and, of course, it has Turn Eight.

"It is probably the most difficult corner in the whole championship," said Renault's Giancarlo Fisichella.

Turn Eight is a long left-hander taken at about 150 m.p.h. which puts a lot of pressure on both driver and machine, particularly late in the race.

"The track is great to drive, with some sections that are really on the limit and what you want to race on as a driver, Turn Eight in particular,"said Alonso.

"It is a very physically demanding circuit, all the fast corners, such as Turn Eight which is awesome and flat out, and the heat place a big demand on the drivers," said Hamilton, who raced there in 2006 in the GP2 Series.

With six races left in the F1 season, McLaren's lead is not big enough that the team can relax.

In 2006, Massa won the Turkish Grand Prix finishing more than five seconds ahead of Alonso for his first Formula One victory.

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What Is the Point Spread?

What are Sports Betting Point Spreads?

In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.

Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).

If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).

Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.

How to Read Point Spreads

New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)

In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:

To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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