Despite defections, plenty of talent still on hand for Pro Bowl

Football Betting Lines

01/27/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A select number of the NFL's best players will be making a trip to Hawaii to participate in this Sunday's AFC-NFC Pro Bowl, though the league's annual all-star game will be lacking some of its star power once again due to a variety of factors.

This will mark the third consecutive year in which the Pro Bowl will be held one week prior to the Super Bowl, thereby removing members of the New England Patriots and New York Giants that were chosen to play in Sunday's exhibition from their conference respective rosters once those teams qualified for the upcoming championship game.

The AFC has been hit particularly hard by the rule, as the Patriots had seven starters and eight players overall invited to Honolulu. That list included such notable names as quarterback Tom Brady, wide receiver Wes Welker and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

In contrast, San Francisco's overtime loss to the Giants last weekend may have turned out to be the NFC's gain, as a conference-best eight 49ers had been picked to the initial squad and just two New York players -- quarterback Eli Manning and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul -- had made the list.

San Francisco will ultimately send six representatives to the contest, with running back Frank Gore, cornerback Carlos Rogers and safety Dashon Goldson all withdrawing after citing injuries and veteran long snapper Brian Jennings recently added as a need player. Six Green Bay Packers, headlined by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, will also be on the final NFC roster, with head coach Mike McCarthy and his staff directing the team.

Following New England's defections, Baltimore had led the AFC corps with eight selections before four Ravens (running back Ray Rice, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs and safety Ed Reed) all pulled out shortly after the club's loss to the Patriots in this past Sunday's conference championship. That leaves AFC West champion Denver with a team-high six players, although popular quarterback Tim Tebow was not among those named.

Brady's departure elevates Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger to the starting signal-caller's post for the AFC, which will be coached by Houston's Gary Kubiak, with Rogers first to lead the NFC offense before likely giving way to New Orleans record-setter Drew Brees.

The unavailability of both Brady and Manning has also opened up spots for a pair of first-year quarterbacks, Cincinnati's Andy Dalton and Carolina sensation Cam Newton. The two will become the first rookies at the position to make the Pro Bowl since Vince Young during the 2006 season.

This will be the 32nd time in the past 33 years in which the Pro Bowl will be held at Aloha Stadium, with the 2010 edition having taken place at Miami's Sun Life Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

The NFC took a 21-20 lead in the all-time series of the Pro Bowl following a wild 55-41 victory in Honolulu last January, the second-highest scoring total in the game's 41-year history, and has now won three of the last four holdings. The AFC halted a string of two straight losses with a 41-34 verdict in Miami in 2010.

Prior to the AFL-NFL merger, the leagues held separate All-Star games after the season from 1961-69. The NFL had its own Pro Bowl from 1951-60, while the league champion competed against an assembled group of top players between 1938-42.

McCarthy will be leading the NFC team for the second time in his career, having coached the conference to a 42-30 triumph in the 2008 Pro Bowl, while Kubiak has never previously had the honor.

AFC OFFENSE VS. NFC DEFENSE

New England's inclusion in Super Bowl XLVI, combined with the absence of Rice and two injured linemen -- Miami tackle Jake Long and Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey -- will give the first-team AFC offense a far different look than originally comprised, as five Patriots (Brady, Welker, Gronkowski and guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters) had been tabbed as starters. Roethlisberger (4077 passing yards, 21 TD, 14 INT) will play after an ankle sprain that hobbled him down the stretch of the regular season had time to heal following the Steelers' early playoff ousting, with San Diego's Philip Rivers (4624 passing yards, 27 TD, 20 INT) next in line and Dalton (3398 passing yards, 20 TD, 13 INT) rounding out the conference's quarterback group. The Cincinnati youngster figures to be firing passes in the direction of teammate A.J. Green (65 receptions, 1057 yards, 7 TD), bumped up into a starter's role in place of Welker, as the first rookie quarterback/wide receiver pairing from the same organization to make the Pro Bowl, with Pittsburgh speedster Mike Wallace (72 receptions, 1193 yards, 8 TD) having the same familiarity with Roethlisberger. Jacksonville standout Maurice Jones-Drew (1606 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 11 total TD) will open up in a backfield that won't contain Rice or Houston's Arian Foster, with Denver's Willis McGahee (1199 rushing yards, 12 receptions, 5 total TD) and the Chargers' Ryan Mathews (1091 rushing yards, 6 TD, 50 receptions) filling those slots. The 30-year-old McGahee will be making his second career Pro Bowl appearance and first since 2007.

The selected NFC starting defense won't be undergoing a whole lot of changes, with Rogers the lone honoree to bow out of the contest. The 49ers will still have a presence on the unit, however, with disruptive tackle Justin Smith (58 tackles, 7.5 sacks) and inside linebacker Patrick Willis (97 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) each receiving well-deserved citations for their contributions to one of the NFL's stingiest defenses in 2011. Even without Pierre-Paul, the conference won't be bereft of top-notch pass rushers, as Minnesota end Jared Allen (66 tackles, 1 INT) led the league with 22 sacks and Dallas outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (58 tackles, 19.5 sacks) and Philadelphia end Jason Babin (40 tackles, 18 sacks) finished second and third, respectively, in that category. Rogers will be replaced in the opening lineup by Chicago's Charles Tillman (99 tackles, 1 sack, 3 INT) in the veteran corner's first trip to Honolulu, while 35-year-old Charles Woodson (74 tackles, 2 sacks, 7 INT) garnered his eighth career Pro Bowl nod on the opposite side and joins outside linebacker and Green Bay teammate Clay Matthews (50 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 INT) as a starter.

NFC OFFENSE VS. AFC DEFENSE

Rodgers (4643 passing yards, 45 TD, 6 INT) will the first up out of an absolutely loaded NFC crop of quarterbacks after setting an new NFL single-year standard with a 122.5 passer rating. The prolific Brees (5476 passing yards, 46 TD, 14 INT), meanwhile, shattered Dan Marino's 27-year-old mark for passing yards in his banner 2011 campaign, while the dynamic Newton (4051 passing yards, 21 TD, 17 INT) threw for more yards than any rookie in league history. That stellar trio won't have the luxury of working with perhaps the best receiver in the game today, however, with Detroit superstar Calvin Johnson declining to attend because of a sore Achilles tendon, though the combo of Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald (80 receptions, 1411 yards, 8 TD) -- the 2009 Pro Bowl MVP -- and Carolina veteran Steve Smith (79 receptions, 1394 yards, 7 TD) alongside New Orleans tight end and first-time selection Jimmy Graham (99 receptions, 1310 yards, 11 TD) ensures there will be more than enough elite targets to go around. The backfield also possesses two quality pass-catchers in Philadelphia first-timer LeSean McCoy (1309 rushing yards, 48 receptions, 20 total TD) and Chicago's Matt Forte (997 rushing yards, 52 receptions, 4 total TD), slated to participate despite missing the final four weeks of the regular season with a sprained knee. Graham is one of three Saints chosen as starters, along with the stout guard tandem of Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans.

The decision of Baltimore's terrific trio of Ngata, Suggs and Reed to all skip this event further depletes an AFC defense that also lost a pair of key Patriots -- tackle Vince Wilfork and injured end Andre Carter -- to the front line. The starting crew will now have a strong Denver look to it, with end Elvis Dumervil (42 tackles, 9.5 sacks) and decorated safety Brian Dawkins (51 tackles, 3 sacks) joining dazzling rookie linebacker Von Miller (64 tackles, 11.5 sacks) and seasoned cornerback Champ Bailey (39 tackles, 2 INT, 10 PD) in the opening lineup following the roster shuffle. Bailey was named to the Pro Bowl for the 11th time, the most by a corner in league history, while the 38- year-old Dawkins has now earned nine such laurels over the course of his distinguished career. Ravens inside linebacker Ray Lewis (95 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) has both men beat, as the two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year will be part of the AFC team for the 13th time. He'll start alongside Miller and Kansas City pass rusher Tamba Hali (66 tackles), whose 12 sacks trailed only Suggs' 14 for tops in the conference this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There will be a distinct Bay Area flavor here, with the kicker, punter and long snapper from both sides all coming from either the Raiders or 49ers. Oakland's Shane Lechler will be competing for the AFC for a fifth consecutive year after producing a 50.8 gross punting average, behind only San Francisco's Andy Lee (50.9 ypg) for the league lead, and Lee's 44.0 net average set a new NFL record that had been held by Lechler and enabled the eighth-year pro to make his third career Pro Bowl. Teammate David Akers also etched his name in the record books by registering new league highs for field goals made (44) and attempted (52) in a season, with that excellent performance landing the ex-Philadelphia Eagle a spot as the NFC's kicker for a third straight year and sixth time overall. The Raiders' Sebastian Janikowski will be headed to Honolulu for the first time, however, after the burly kicker connected on 31-of-35 three-point tries and an impressive 7-of-10 from beyond 50 yards. Jennings and Oakland's Jon Condo were added to the rosters as long snappers this week, with both specialists receiving their second career Pro Bowl nods.

The rest of the special teams selections will contain predominantly newcomers, highlighted by electrifying Arizona rookie Patrick Peterson's choice as the NFC's return man. The Cardinals cornerback tied an NFL record with four punt return scores while averaging 15.9 yards per runback. Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown gets the call for the AFC after averaging a solid 27.3 yards on kickoffs and 10.9 on punts, and the second-year wideout should also see time on offense after compiling over 1,100 receiving yards during the regular season. Chicago's Corey Graham and Jacksonville's Montell Owens, who'll be taking the spot of New England's Matthew Slater, were honored as special-teams coverage players and are each regarded among the league's best at that aspect.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

While it's near impossible to gauge how the players will approach what's essentially a meaningless exhibition and a hard-earned vacation, recent history does indicate that the game is almost certain to contain a massive amount of scoring, with the winning team having put up 38 points or more in nine of the last 12 Pro Bowls. The NFC has had the upper hand as of late and will also be coming in with less of a roster purge than the AFC, which had eight players withdraw due to injury in addition to having to replace eight Patriots. With the two best quarterbacks in this contest (Rodgers and Brees) also on that side, not to mention a multi-talented threat in Newton who should be eager to showcase his unique skills against some of the league's best on a national stage, and the blue team appears to be the better bet.

Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: NFC 45, AFC 34

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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